Friday, March 5, 2010

Hail to the Prince: Obama, the paradigmatic Machiavellian Leader

Prince Obama by Edna Spennato.
A prince never lacks legitimate reasons to break his promise.
- Nicolò Machiavelli

By Mary Rizzo* | Sabbah Report | www.sabbah.biz

Obama, before he actually "did" anything, had a reputation. And, indeed, reputation – what others think you are, and not what you actually are – is a crucial factor in a public figure. A political leader, while marketed, literally, in order to reach positions of power in most democracies, is going to have to continually develop a reputation that will keep the story going, because, not being a dictator, a president is going to have to obtain consensus for the many things that the power he holds enables him to enact, but not without some accountability.

What you "are" and how you are "perceived" is a fascinating topic. It is dealt with mainly in sociology and psychology, but someone very important in the history of thought had a great deal to say about it regarding politics and power. Unwittingly, this topic that has been one of my favourite areas of research was dropped on my lap in my day-to-day life: helping my child with her homework.

By any measuring stick, the scholastic curriculum of Italian children is complicated. In the 5th grade they are spending five months studying Homer and classical poetry. When they are 11 or 12 they are expected to make sense out of Dante, Cervantes and Ariosto. Most of the time they require help from older siblings, cousins or parents, so in addition to crouching over the textbook summaries and sloppy notes, a daily ritual is taking the books of adults off the shelves and trying to find a way to work through the labyrinth of archaic language that is the bulk of the content, and to put things into an understandable context, at least enough to get the kids through the frequent oral exams.
This winter break, my 12-year-old daughter's history and literature lessons were focused on Savonarola, Dante, the Counter-Reform and Machiavelli, so we spent many hours preparing for the exams coming up in January. Needless to say, while the topics may be really dull for a child, I realised they were perfect primarily to keep the teacher interested. Not that I am against culture, but with the heritage Italy has, and the linear direction of history, it's complicated as hell for a pre-teen. While it was frustrating thinking of how my kid was going to tackle things like the Council of Trent and the Guelfs and Ghibellines, I myself was happy to have a chance to revisit things that I studied in University, this time in their original language and with greater awareness of the context and how they have often been paraphrased erroneously, even diluted and twisted, to conform to a modern sensitivity.

Trying to paraphrase the basic concepts and reading the various textbook presentations (both for the History class and the Literature class) gave me a chance to look at the material with fresh eyes and some of that has been illuminating for me. I have no illusions that textbooks are outside the dominant discourse. They all have an agenda, and nowhere like in a crucial field that is run by the government, that of education, is there going to be anything far outside the approved national narrative. Yet, the approach was different than what I was used to, embracing Machiavelli as the pioneer of political science, but also someone who was an acute observer of reality and still today relevant.

And, in reading the summarised material, I realised that President Barack Obama, not so differently from his direct predecessors, rather than being inspired by Andrew Jackson, Samuel Adams or Abraham Lincoln, is a brilliant student and disciple of Nicolò Machiavelli.

The promise given was a necessity of the past: the word broken is a necessity of the present.
Nicolò Machiavelli

Machiavelli's got something of a reputation, evidenced by the fact that his name has become an adjective with largely negative connotations, not really merited, in all honesty. What makes it even more entertaining is that the most scandalous part of his theoretical writing was the analysis of "reputation", and the necessity of the leader of a State to manipulate the idea and the perception others have of him in order to carry out actions that have as the goal consolidation and maintenance of his own power.
I'm assuming everyone is familiar with Machiavelli's concepts, as expressed in his major work "The Prince". But for the sake of clarity, I will briefly sum them up. Many tend to call that treatise a kind of "recipe" for the shrewd leader, but his ideas were not the fruit of some conniving mind, rather they were quite simply a lucid analysis of the real world. He warned that before him, all had analysed politics and leadership according to "ideal" criteria. Useless. Something ideal remains theoretical and very rarely is able to be put to the test, and therefore is non-existent. There is no evidence Popes are the representatives of God's will or that Kings descend from the emperors of Rome, so those battling in defence of one or the other for those reasons were not saying what the real role of these rulers were, which was a form of total control by means of the carrot and the stick, but kept hidden by all that "ideals" rhetoric.

Yet, most governing systems, (even modern ones ranging from democracy to constitutional monarchies to military dictatorships to theocracies), carry the germ of some ideal and this obviously is true for the ideologies, bearing the root in their very name, and they take advantage of that when they can so as to build their reputation and gain consensus. The vision of what shall be obtained and the means to do so are constructed and not accidental. However, Machiavelli took the mask off things by noting that throughout history there has never been a government, regime or ideology that could qualify as fully meeting its ideals, a "perfect society" (not necessarily a utopia, just a society that works according to the ideal rules established). The best thing to do, in the light of that, was to analyse the reality and study the States in order to be able to create and consolidate the power of the leaders (who at the time represented the land and the people), determining the necessary means to maintain that power and if at all possible, to expand it.

And the beauty of his thesis is in its simplicity and the ease of its being verified. His idea was that in public life only the praise and blame of fellow human beings is what really counts. Thus, Machiavelli supposed, the ruler needs to acquire a good reputation while actually doing whatever seems necessary in the circumstances, no matter how "right or wrong" it could appear or actually be. Thus, rulers must seem to be generous while spending their money to consolidate their own wealth and power, appear to be compassionate while ruling their armies cruelly, and act with great cunning while cultivating a reputation for integrity. In essence, the ace ruler, cream of the crop, has to be considered as a worthy recipient of peace prizes while at the same time he is sending more troops to wage war in faraway lands. People will see the parts of it they want to see, and all of it is real.

In his writing, a true "Prince/President" has to appear "compassionate, faithful, humane, religious" without actually being any of these things. He should go to Cairo to tell Muslims they have a beautiful faith, yet address them in a way only a colonialist could do, using Arabic words to thrill them, a sort of Ich bin ein Berliner in Middle Eastern Sauce. He believes that they are so thirsty for American love and so intellectually immature that they will be impressed enough into thinking he is sincere, allowing them to approve his doublespeak: talking about peace and love while telling them how just and righteous the wars against Muslim nations were and how Palestinians have to "stop killing", then they will be like "the good side, peace-loving but forced into a preventive war". If they accept and approve all of this, they win! They get to join the "international community" and be worthy of that love. He has carried on in the great Neocon tradition in citing that stuff, terrorism, defining it as located in the Muslim world and joining as a single category true terrorist acts with resistance insurgency against (American) military occupation, all of it bad, bad, bad and going to be punished. Machiavelli would have been impressed at the blatancy of it and in awe of how it was done by today's Prince. Not too many people in history have applauded their oppressor while he is doing his job so ruthlessly.

Obama studied his Machiavelli, of this there can be no doubt! He knows that history teaches that the head of a State has to be a "fox" as well as a "lion", crafty and ferocious. His adversaries have to be weakened totally or else extinguished. As a matter of fact, the adversaries have to be shown courtesy or even a level of respect in order to obtain their friendship; the alternative is to kill them, and they will be told they have the choice of obedience or death. All clearly spelled out. But, this too was a Bush specialty. It is just that Bush got criticised for it and has not collected any prizes recently in Stockholm.

On the national level, the Prince understands that although it is desirable to be both loved and feared by one's subjects, it is difficult to achieve both, and of the two, Machiavelli declared, it is far safer for the ruler to be feared. Thus, any kind of restrictions of freedom, a lietmotif of decades of American leadership, are creating stress levels that force Americans into numbing themselves in front of mindless infotainment and disinformation. Stressed because they know they are being monitored at all times and one false move, one bad investment, one iffy book taken out of the library, one strange video downloaded, one racist joke made over the phone, and they may do some hard time. Should the skeletons in the closet get discovered, the real ones this time, there will be no one to save them. Even the folks who work for Obama had to fill out detailed personal questionnaires (preventive scandal insurance), so if that's how one handles friends, heaven help the rest of them.

The Prince should be able to control his subjects by demonstrating qualities of severity that could also be cruel, because the subjects must feel fear and respect towards the leader, and the two-stepping charmer we all would like to date could turn into the goose-stepping enforcer who decides Guantanamo isn't such a bad idea anyway, and allowing cops to shoot down Imams in Detroit and ask questions (maybe) later was still the Law and Order MO.

Machiavelli looked at reality without hypocrisy. He had the courage to cut through the rhetoric and recognise that it is action that shapes geopolitics, and his most intense statements were those about the relationships a State has with another. He insisted that the only real force of a State is in an extremely well-armed military, solid and faithful to its leader.

Clashes and wars are born out of will to power and desire to control ever greater territories, conquest, in other words, not for abstract principles, though the abstract principles get the consensus required by a democracy. You can't invade a country and say, "We want your resources", though you are actually taking control of them, they always "did something" to deserve it, and the spoils of war are extreme punishment that they had coming. But you can get people to support a war because it will prevent terrorism or even make the world a safer place, but once in there, well, why not take advantage of the stuff under the sand? Indeed, Obama continues and adds more ammo to the policy of controlling territories, even those that are not contiguous and would need military garrisons to control after the dust settles. He learned the Machiavellian lesson that the life of a State is regulated by calculation, force, even brutality. A Strong State tends to conquer and annihilate a weaker one. Back in history this is the constant. No need to reinvent the wheel.

Peace can only exist when it is in the interests of the nations. The idea of love between populations has existed only in rhetoric. It is one army fighting another for the sake of the leader and his expansionist ambitions. The leader that wants to maintain his power will attack when he has the military advantage, and will claim that others forced him into it. There will be peace once the nations that have invasion soldiers crawling all over them capitulate and let the history run its course.

This paper is only a brief exercise, a stimulus for readers to find more of their own evidence as we note that the salient points that characterise "The Prince" are not so different from "The President", based on Machiavelli's treatise. I thank Italy's Ministry of Education, my daughter's professor and my daughter herself for turning homework into discussion points.
http://sabbah.biz/mt/archives/2010/03/04/hail-to-the-prince-obama-the-paradigmatic-machiavellian-leader/#more-5697

Глава СКП РФ предлагает брать отпечатки пальцев у всех мусульман проживающих на территории Имарата Кавказ

Поголовное снятие отпечатков напоминает мне клеймо на каждом животном в пастбище.

Не стоит удивляться, это говорит, всего лишь, об истинном статусе мусульман на Кавказе. Мы всего лишь оккупированные народы, которых в кафирской Русне никто и никогда не считал за людей – и в этом только наша вина. Аллах говорит в священном Кур’aне:

«Если вы удовлетворитесь посевами, ухватитесь за хвосты коров и оставите Джихад, то Аллах непременно нашлет на вас унижение, которое не снимет с вас до тех пор, пока вы не вернетесь в лоно своей религии» (Абу Дауд, Ибн Ади, ат-Табарани от Ибн Умара. Хадис достоверный. См. «Сахихуль-джами’» 423).

___________________________________

Руководитель Следственного комитета при прокуратуре РФ Александр Бастрыкин считает, что нужно ввести обязательную дактилоскопическую регистрацию всех «россиян» , проживающих на территории Северо-Кавказского округа, а также беженцев и вынужденных переселенцев.

По словам Бастрыкина, который в четверг выступил на коллегии Генпрокуратуры, вместе с отпечатками пальцев у этих граждан следует брать образцы ДНК – это необходимо для формирования централизованных учетов для повышения эффективности работы по раскрытию преступлений, сообщает РИА «Новости»
http://caucase.wordpress.com/

Israel's Peace Plan

by Habib Haddad
http://palestinethinktank.com/

Thursday, March 4, 2010

Герт Вилдерс победил на выборах в Голландии

Усиление ультраправой Партии свободы во главе с Гертом Вилдерсом, известным своей активной антимусульманской позицией, продемонстрировали состоявшиеся в среду в Нидерландах выборы в местные органы власти. Как свидетельствуют опубликованные сегодня здесь предварительные итоги голосования, Партия свободы стала победителем в городе Алмере (21 проц), опередив Партию труда, считающуюся социал-демократической в политическом спектре Нидерландов.


Примечательно, что ультра правые стали второй политической силой в столице - Гааге, набрав 17,1 проц голосов и уступив лишь Партии труда, передает ИТАР-ТАСС. Лидеры Партии свободы перед голосованием приняли решение ограничить свое участие двумя крупными городами, чтобы продемонстрировать усиление своего влияния.

По данным голландского Центризбиркома, явка избирателей в среднем по стране составила 53 проц. Причем, на отдаленных северных островах Вадденского моря она дошла до 82,5 проц, а в индустриальном Эйндховене - едва добралась до 43,5 проц. Однако пока подсчитано 93 проц голосов, и все данные являются предварительными. Официальные окончательные результаты выборов, как ожидаются, будут объявлены в пятницу.

Особенность муниципальных выборов заключается в том, что в них принимают участие не только крупные общенациональные партии, но и мелкие региональные, зачастую неизвестные за пределами своего региона или провинции. Другая особенность выборов в местные органы власти состоит в том, что принять в них участие могли не только граждане Нидерландов, но и иностранцы, легально живущие в стране.

Политические аналитики называют выборы в местные органы власти «генеральной репетицией» перед досрочными парламентскими выборами, которые назначены на 9 июня этого года в связи с распадом правительственной коалиции и отставкой кабинета министров. Как отмечают эксперты, итоги муниципальных выборов продемонстрировали настроения и тенденции в обществе, которые будут определять ход парламентских выборов, по итогам которых должно быть сформировано новое правительство Нидерландов.
http://i-r-p.ru/page/stream-event/index-25678.html

Tuesday, March 2, 2010

Hang Up on Motorola

Join thousands of other human rights advocates demanding accountability from Motorola for its support of Israeli human rights violations. There are several ways that Motorola and their wholy owned subsidiary, Motorola-Israel, profit directly from violations of international law:

* Motorola has the exclusive contract to provide the Israeli military with encrypted mobile phone technology. This means that every Israeli boarder guard manning a checkpoint inside of Palestinian territory and every Israeli soldier committing war crimes in the assault on the Gaza Strip takes their orders through a Motorola device.
* Motorola "virtual fences" and surveillance systems are used at dozens of illegal Israeli settlements built on Palestinian land. These Jewish-only settlements are a potent symbol Israeli apartheid and are illegal under several international laws, including the 4th Geneva Convention. Settlements use high-tech Motorola equipment to ghettoize Palestinian communities as confiscate their land.
* Motorola's subsidiary, MIRS communications has mobile phones and service plans exclusively for the use of Jewish settlers. These discriminatory practices are despicable, but even worse MIRS service towers are often built on stolen Palestinian land.
* Motorola also has close ties with Aeronautics Defense Systems (ADS), which makes drone aircraft that the Israeli military used during Operation Cast Lead (the most recent assault on the Gaza Strip). Last April Motorola sold their bomb fuze division to ADS, just after Human Rights Watch reported finding debris from Motorola bomb components in the rubble of civilian buildings in the Gaza Strip.
http://www.endtheoccupation.org/article.php?list=type&type=209

Why the oppressed must tell their own story

When American historian Howard Zinn passed away recently, he left behind a legacy that redefined our relationship to history altogether.

Professor Zinn dared to challenge the way history was told and written. In fact he went as far as to defy the conventional construction of historical discourses through the pen of victor or of elites who earned the right of narration though their might, power and affluence.

This kind of history might be considered accurate insofar as it reflects a self-seeking and self-righteous interpretation of the world by a very small number of people. But it is also highly inaccurate when taking into account the vast majority of peoples everywhere.

The oppressor is the one who often articulates his relationship to the oppressed, the colonialist to the colonized, and the slave-master to the slave. The readings of such relationships are fairly predictable.

Even valiant histories that most of us embrace and welcome, such as those celebrating the legacy of human rights, equality and freedom left behind by Martin Luther King, Malcolm X and Nelson Mandela still tend to be selective at times. Martin Luther King’s vision might have prevailed, but some tend to limit their admiration to his ‘I have a dream’ speech. The civil rights hero was an ardent anti-war champion as well, but that is often relegated as non-essential history. Malcolm X is often dismissed altogether, despite the fact that his self-assertive words have reached the hearts and minds of millions of black people throughout the United States, and many more millions around the world.

His speech was in fact so radical that it could not be ‘sanitized’ or reinterpreted in any controllable way. Mandela, the freedom fighter, is celebrated with endless accolades by the very foes that branded him a terrorist. Of course, his insistence on his people’s rights to armed struggle is not to be discussed. It is too flammable a subject to even mention at a time when anyone who dares wield a gun against the self-designated champions of ‘democracy’ gets automatically classified a terrorist.

Therefore, Zinn’s peoples’ histories of the United States and of the world have represented a milestone in historical narration.

As a Palestinian writer who is fond with such luminaries, I too felt the need to provide an alternative reading of history, in this case, Palestinian history. I envisioned, with much hesitation, a book that serves as a people’s history of Palestine. I felt that I have earned the right to present such a possible version of history, being the son of Palestinian refugees, who lost everything and were exiled to live dismal lives in a Gaza refugee camp. I am the descendant of ‘peasants’ – Fellahin – whose odyssey of pain, struggle, but also heroic resistance is constantly misrepresented, distorted, and at times overlooked altogether.

It was the death of my father (while under siege in Gaza) that finally compelled me to translate my yearning into a book. My Father was a Freedom Fighter, Gaza’s Untold Story offered a version of Palestinian history was not told by an Israeli narrator – sympathetic or otherwise – and neither was it an elitist account, as often presented by Palestinian writers. The idea was to give a human face to all the statistics, maps and figures.

History cannot be classified by good vs. bad, heroes vs. villains, moderates vs. extremists. No matter how wicked, bloody or despicable, history also tends to follow rational patterns, predictable courses. By understanding the rationale behind historical dialectics, one can achieve more than a simple understanding of what took place in the past; it also becomes possible to chart fairly reasonable understanding of what lies ahead.

Perhaps one of the worse aspects of today’s detached and alienating media is its production of history - and thus characterization of the present - as based on simple terminology. This gives the illusion of being informative, but actually manages to contribute very little to our understanding of the world at large.

Such oversimplifications are dangerous because they produce an erroneous understanding of the world, which in turn compels misguided actions.

For these reasons, it is incumbent upon us to try to discover alternative meanings and readings of history. To start, we could try offering historical perspectives which try to see the world from the viewpoint of the oppressed – the refugees, the fellahin who have been denied, amongst many rights, the right to tell their own story.

This view is not a sentimental one. Far from it. An elitist historical narrative is maybe the dominant one, but it is not always the elites who influence the course of history. History is also shaped by collective movements, actions and popular struggles. By denying this fact, one denies the ability of the collective to affect change. In the case of Palestinians, they are often presented as hapless multitudes, passive victims without a will of their own. This is of course a mistaken perception; the Palestinians’ conflict with Israel has lasted this long only because of their unwillingness to accept injustice, and their refusal to submit to oppression. Israel’s lethal weapons might have changed the landscape of Gaza and Palestine, but the will of Gazans and Palestinians are what have shaped the landscape of Palestine’s history.

Touring with My Father was a Freedom Fighter in South Africa, in a recent visit, was a most intense experience. It was in this country that freedom fighters once rose to fight oppression, challenging and eventually defeating Apartheid. My father, the refugee of Gaza has suddenly been accepted unconditionally by a people of a land thousands of miles away.

The notion of ‘people’s history’ can be powerful because it extends beyond boundaries, and expands beyond ideologies and prejudices. In that narrative, Palestinians, South Africans, Native Americans and many others find themselves the sons and daughters of one collective history, one oppressive legacy, but also part of an active community of numerous freedom fighters, who dared to challenge and sometimes even change the face of history.

South Africa has; Palestine will.

-- Ramzy Baroud (Ramzy Baroud)
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/articles/39/Why-the-oppressed-must-tell-their-own-story.html

"Solidarity in Action: Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions" --That is the center of Israeli Apartheid Week, in over 40 cities this week:

"Building international solidarity during Israeli Apartheid Week".
http://stoprapingpalestine.blogspot.com/2010/03/building-international-solidarity.html

Испанские школьники проводят акцию "Почему Израиль убивает палестинских детей?"

Фото: Associated Press


Сотни открыток от испанских школьников, получило в последние дни израильское посольство в Мадриде. Испанские дети спрашивают, почему израильтяне убивают палестинских детей.

"Г-н посол, необходимо перестать думать о том, чтобы убивать палестинских детей и стариков. Мне непонятно, почему массовые убийства не создают для вас проблемы. Оставьте Палестину в покое", - написано на одной из открыток. "Г-н посол, вы должны немедленно прекратить убийства палестинских младенцев. Как вам не стыдно уничтожать маленьких детей? Прекратите убийства и найдите себе другое место для обитания", - говорится в другой.

Израильский МИД поспешил обратиться с протестом в посольство Испании в Израиле, обвинив эту страну в проведении организованной акции и назвав ее, как обычно, "проявлением антисемитизма".

Однако посольство Испании сообщило, что государственные органы этой страны не несут ответственность за проведение данной акции, передает "Наше кафе".
http://www.islamnews.ru/news-22899.html

Во Франции проходит "День без иммигрантов"



Провести 1 марта во Франции "день без работы и без потребления" призвали различные правозащитные организации страны, чтобы продемонстрировать важность иммигрантов для французской экономики. Призыв стремительно распространился в интернете, но насколько успешной окажется эта акция, пока не ясно.

Мысль провести "День без иммигрантов" родилась осенью 2009 года в связи с нечаянным ляпсусом, допущенным тогдашним министром иммиграции страны Брисом Ортефе.

К вящему смущению правящего Союза за народное движение (Union pour un mouvement populaire, UMP) камера случайно запечатлела замечание Ортефе, сделанное коллеге по партии арабского происхождения, что "один из вас еще ладно, но когда вас много, возникает проблема". Несмотря на все оправдания политика, что это была шутка, к тому же вырванная из контекста, неосторожное высказывание вызвало целый шквал критики.

Тогда то и появилась идея посвятить один день – 1 марта – тому, чтобы сделать иммигрантов "невидимыми", и таким несколько провокационным способом продемонстрировать их важную роль в жизни страны.

"Наша единственная цель заключается в том, чтобы вернуть иммигрантам уважение и достоинство, - говорит президент объединения организаций по защите прав иммигрантов Надиа Ламаркби. – Эта мысль кому-то может показаться забавной, но на самом деле это совершенно серьезно. Мы просто хотим, чтобы люди взглянули на иммиграцию иначе, в позитивном свете, подумали о том, как велик их вклад в общество. Конечно, мы не сможем сразу изменить людей, разрушить стереотипы, связанные в их сознании с иммигрантами, но мы надеемся направить их в новое русло, и постепенно изменить их представления".

Организаторы призывают всех граждан, как приезжих, так и местных, в течение 24 часов не работать и ничего не покупать. "Прекратить экономическую деятельность в компаниях, организациях, общественном секторе, школах, университетах, больницах, сфере услуг, СМИ, политике…", говорится в манифесте организаторов. В различных городах Франции пройдут сегодня митинги, посвященные этой проблеме.

Идея проведения "Дня без иммигрантов" нашла поддержку в Испании, Италии и Греции. Делегация из Германии намерена прибыть сегодня во Францию. В организацию мероприятия включились многие правозащитные группы, движения в защиту прав иммигрантов, и даже французский торговый союз CFDT. Тем, кто по каким-либо причинам не может пропустить в этот день работу, предлагается проявить солидарность, повязав на рукав желтую ленту, сообщает "France24".
http://www.islamnews.ru/news-22906.html

Палестинцы готовят Израилю "белую интифаду"?

Статус-кво, сложившийся в последнее время в отношениях между Израилем и палестинцами, продержавшийся также и в 2009 году, обслуживает стратегические цели Израиля и позволяет ему действовать против иранской угрозы.

Относительное затишье в сфере безопасности и продолжающийся спор между обеими сторонами об условиях возобновления переговоров представляют собой важный элемент государственной концепции "затишья и стабильности", являясь, среди прочего, благодатной почвой для сезонной дискуссии о возможном вступлении в переговорный процесс на сирийском направлении.

Это затишье может исчезнуть в один момент. Давление, оказываемое на палестинскую администрацию и на ХАМАС, угрожает изменить ситуацию. Это связано с тем, что в двух палестинских автономиях, на Западном берегу и в Газе, происходит переоценка баланса сил между палестинцами и Израилем, который, на сегодня, полностью контролирует геополитическую повестку дня и успешно торпедирует любой шанс на приемлемое, с точки зрения палестинцев, соглашение в обозримом будущем.

Следует предположить, что новая методика сопротивления палестинцев будет сформирована под влиянием тех изменений, которые произошли в мире за последнее десятилетие и привели к уменьшению влияния сверхдержав на мировую политику, а также к усилению правозащитного дискурса в международной политике. Это нашло свое выражение в целом ряде так называемых "бархатных революций", участники которых выступили против централизованной власти ("революция роз" в Грузии в 2004 году; "оранжевая революция" в Украине в 2004-м; "цветная революция" в Киргизии в 2005 году).

Эти революции преследовали целью заставить представителей власти сесть за стол переговоров с представителями оппозиции. Их успех во многом был предопределен средствами массовой информации, ставшими главным оружием "бархатных революций".

Вполне возможно, что действия подобного рода, которые можно назвать "белой интифадой", станут новой стратегией палестинцев. Цель - превращение двустороннего диалога между Израилем и палестинцами - в многосторонний, в ходе которого будет предпринята попытка разрушить монополию израильтян и американцев на формирование государственной повестки дня в нашем регионе.

"Белая интифада" станет завершающей стадией процесса формирования основных институтов палестинского государства, включающего создание всей необходимой государственно-политической инфраструктуры будущей независимой Палестины. Предполагается шумное, освещаемое всеми СМИ, провозглашение палестинского государства. Затем будут выдвинуты требования по отношению к Израилю. И в первую очередь речь пойдет об отступлении с территорий.

Игнорирование Израилем этих требований может привести к антиизраильским экономическим санкциям , в основном со стороны европейских кругов, а также бойкотом и изоляцией еврейского государства. Израиль окажется перед выбором между двумя, одинаково плохими, вариантами: 1) уступить международному давлению, что будет означать неспособность контролировать политический процесс; 2) не поддаваться давлению, что приведет к усиливающейся международной изоляции.

Палестинское население может быть мобилизовано для участия в массовых акциях протеста, главным объектом которых будут еврейские поселения за пределами "зеленой черты". Это может привести к акциям насилия и столкновению между еврейским и арабским населением, что лишь ускорит международное вмешательство.

Израиль должен опередить подобное развитие событий, а не проводить страусиную политику, пряча голову в песок. Израильская государственно-политическая стратегия должна опираться на два основных элемента - расширение политического и международного пространства вокруг палестинского вопроса путем возобновления переговорного процесса, в котором палестинцы должны иметь равный статус.

Это первое. Второе: должен быть расширен круг участников переговоров на региональном и международном уровне, что поможет нейтрализовать заранее возможности палестинцев действовать в одностороннем порядке. Цель подобных действий палестинской стороны, как это уже упоминалось выше, мобилизация международного общественного мнения.

Если Израиль сам не инициирует серьезные политические шаги на данном направлении, шансы на "белую интифаду" возрастут. При подобном развитии событий Израиль полностью потеряет способность формировать геополитическое пространство на территории между морем и рекой Иордан.

Статья опубликована в газете "Haaretz"(Израиль), перевод предоставлен израильским изданием "Курсор"
http://www.islamnews.ru/news-22835.html